Trend Analysis Of Malaria Prevalence In Relation To Climate Variables In Mettu Town, Oromia Region, South West Ethiopia.

Abstract

Malaria is a major global health concern. It is also one of the leading causes of illness and death in Ethiopia. A retrospective study was conducted to determine malaria prevalence in relation to climate variables in the years 2000 – 2014 in Mettu town, Illubabora Zone, South West Ethiopia. Malaria prevalence was determined using data obtained from Mettu health facilities and the meteorological data for minimum temperature, maximum temperature, rainfall and relative humidity of the past fifteen years (2000- 2014) were obtained from Mettu Meteorology agency/office. The obtained data were analyzed using SPSS software package, version 16.0. Within the last fifteen years (2000-2014) a total of 51,865 cases were visited the health facilities for malaria diagnosis and a total of 9,816 microscopically confirmed malaria cases were recorded from the town with the annual total case of malaria ranged from 110 in 2007 to 1644 in 2010 with 654 mean annual malaria cases. The overall malaria prevalence in the study area was 19%. Males were more affected than females but this varied year to year. The infection rate among males was 55.8% (5,474/9,816) and females was 44.2% (4,342/9,816). Malaria was reported in all age groups from the area but the age group 15–44 was the most affected with a prevalence rate of 44.3% ( 4349/9,816), while the age group <1 years was the least affected (3.6%). A high predominance of P. falciparum over P. vivax was recorded with 61.3% and 34.3% respectively. Highly significant positive correlation was observed between monthly maximum temperature and malaria (r = 0.88; p=0.000), between minimum temperature and malaria (r = 0.874; p=0.000), between mean temperature and malaria (r = 0.85; p=0.000), between rainfall and malaria (r = 0.79; p=0.000) and between mean relative humidity and malaria (r = 0.876; p=0.000). Finally the result of this study helps the malaria control program to understand the trend of malaria and the impact of climate variables on malaria in the past fifteen years in the study setting.