Survival Analysis of Age at First Marriage and Age at First Sexual Intercourse among Women in Rural Ethiopia

Abstract

Age at first marriage and first sex has important implications for gender relations and the organization of family life in societies. Age at marriage is of particular interest because it marks the transition to adulthood in many societies; the point at which certain options in education, employment, and participation in society are foreclosed; and the beginning of regular socially acceptable time for sexual activity and childbearing. This study aimed to investigate the potential risk factors affecting age at first marriage and age at first sexual intercourse using Cox proportional hazards and accelerated failure time models among women in Rural Ethiopia. Methods: The data source for the analysis was the 2011 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey data. The study considered 10,417 women aged 15-49 years from nine regions and one city administration. The Cox proportional hazards and accelerated failure time models were employed with the help of R statistical package and STATA soft wares. Results: The median survival time for both age at first marriage and age at first sexual intercourse were 17 years with 95% CI; (16.90, 17.10) and (16.90, 17.11) respectively. Loglogistic accelerated failure time model was better than weibull and log-normal models based on Akaike’s information criterion and graphical evidence. The result showed that region, women’s educational level, wealth index and religion were significantly affect timing of first marriage and first sexual intercourse. Women who had secondary and higher education prolonged time-to-first marriage by the factor of ɸ =1.42 and ɸ =1.46, respectively, and prolonged time-to-first sexual intercourse by the factor of ɸ=1.38 and ɸ=1.34. Conclusion: Improving girls and young women access to education is important for rising the women’s age at first marriage and first sexual intercourse, which is vital for empowering them and enhancing their participation in any sector.