Bayesian Method to Examine the Factors for Birth Defects in Children Admitted to CURE Ethiopia Children’s Hospital: Application of a Bivariate Multinomial Regression model

Abstract

Background: Cleft Lip (CL) and Cleft Palate (CP) are holes or splits inside the upper lip and roof of the mouth (palate). These are the most prevalent congenital abnormalities of the head and neck and mainly occur when the facial structure of a growing child does not fully close. This study aimed to examine the determinants of cleft lip and cleft palate in children admitted at CURE Ethiopia Children’s Hospital. Methods: In this study, the data were collected from 544 children and related fami lies cleft lip and palate patients using the cross-sectional study design. A bivariate multinomial regression model was employed to examine the determinants of cleft lip and cleft palate. Parameter estimation and inference association to the model were performed based on the Bayesian method. Results: Among the study participants, unilateral, bilateral, and median cleft lip types of birth defects were observed on 360 (66.17%), 118 (21.69%) and 66 (12.13%) children, respectively. Also, 143(26.28 %) , 83 (15.25%) and 318 (58.45%) children were with muscular/soft, bony/hard and both (soft and hard) parts of the cleft palate, respectively. The results suggests that mothers consumption of alcohol for unilateral (OR =1.127; 95% CI: 1.066, 5.546) was significant predictors for cleft lip. On the other hand, mothers consumption of alcohol for bony/hard part (OR = 1.701; 95% CI: 1.286, 5.680) was significant predictors for cleft Palate at 5% level of confidence. The choice of prior distributions significantly impact the posterior distributions. Conclusion: In this study, alcohol consumption during pregnancy, maternal folic acid deficiency, history of birth defects, poor antenatal care service, and other variables were the risk factors for the prevalence of cleft lip and cleft palate in children. There fore, in order to decrease the occurrence of these defects, special attention should be paid to specific population groups by raising awareness of the risk factors.