Evaluation of historical CMIP6 model simulations and future climate change projections in the Baro River Basin

Abstract

This study evaluated the performance of five Global Climate Model (GCM) outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) in reproducing the historical precipitation and temperature. Observational data from the National Meteorological Agency are used for model evaluation and bias correction. Then, the projections from representative GCMs are used to understand the future climate (2031–2060) of the Baro River Basin under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) with respect to the historical datasets (1985– 2014). Statistical metrics (percent of bias, root mean square error, and coefficient of determination) are used to assess the model’s perform ance in reproducing precipitation and temperature and Compromise Programming (CP) was used in ranking GCMs. GFDL-CM4, INM-CM5-0, and INM-CM4-8 models for precipitation; CMCC-ESM2, MRI-ESM2-0, and INM-CM4-8 for maximum temperature; and GFDL-CM4, INM-CM4-8, and INM-CM5-0 for minimum temperature were selected based on their better simulation. The projected annual precipitation shows increases of 6% under SSP2-4.5 and 16.46% under SSP5-8.5. The mean annual maximum and minimum temperature show increases of 1.43 and 1.96 °C under SSP2-4.5, and 1.81 and 3.11 °C under SSP5-8.5, respectively. Overall, the ensemble of three models outperforms the ensemble of all models for the Baro River Basin when utilising the representative GCMs.