Abstract:
Given the Baro River basin’s high climatic variability and frequent flooding, climate change is expected to exacerbate the existing issues in the
region. Three best-performing climate models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) were used to examine the
potential impact of climate change on the hydrology of the Baro River sub-basin. The ensemble of the climate models were bias-corrected
for the climate change analysis and a calibrated and validated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to examine the impact
of the climate changes under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) in the future (2031–2060). The climate change
scenarios projected an increase in precipitation and temperature under all scenarios. Consequently, annual increase in surface runoff,
water yield, and potential evapotranspiration (PET) was reported by 30.33% (44.67%), 6% (18.1%,), and 4.49% (6.63%) and decline in ground
water by 13.17% (2.64%) under SSP2-4.5 (SSP5-8.5), respectively. The rise in temperature and PET could be responsible for the decline in
groundwater, while the projected increase in precipitation is expected to enhance surface runoff, perhaps leading to flooding. This requires
an improved water management policy that involves all sectors and takes into account the equity for different users.
